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Monday, July 26, 2010

Other Implications of Baby Boomer Aging: Toys

A lot of people have draw the conclusion:
  • Baby Boomers are aging -->
  • There will be more old people -->
  • Time to invest in healthcare, health services, and other services to satisfy he elderly
Another way to think about this is

  • Baby Boomers had few children (Echo Boomers) -->
  • Echo Boomers are having fewer children -->
  • Investment in companies targeted towards children is less attractive (potentially shortable)
The companies that come to mind (Toys R Us, Nickelodeon, etc.) are either non-public or part of a larger company

Also, I would not necessarily advocate shorting Toys R Us - b/c it could very well grow despite industry headwinds (e.g., by picking up market share, via M&A, etc.). What may be interesting is shorting a hypothetical index of children-related companies.

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